Canada’s population experienced a decline of approximately 55,000 individuals in the initial quarter of this year, as per the latest statistics from Statistics Canada. The estimated population as of April 1 stood at 41,417,056. This 0.1% decrease is attributed to reductions in both immigration numbers and the birth rate compared to mortality figures, the agency reported.
In the early months of 2026, there was a notable decrease in permanent immigrants in Canada, with a drop of around 20% compared to the same period in the previous year, declining from 104,210 in 2025 to 83,149. The count of non-permanent residents also saw a significant decline of over 117,000 individuals; however, Statistics Canada issued a caution that these initial estimates might be subject to revisions due to evolving international migration policies.
Moreover, the so-called “natural increase” in population, where births surpass deaths, turned negative in the first quarter, with 155 more deaths recorded than births nationwide. These demographic shifts have had implications on the economy, with recent data suggesting that Canada’s economic performance has been challenging by some metrics.
National Bank of Canada’s chief economist, Stéfane Marion, highlighted that the population decrease has played a role in the decline of indicators such as the gross domestic product (GDP). He emphasized that with reduced immigration numbers, the overall economic “pie” size would shrink, even though a smaller total population could mean a larger share per individual.
Economist Mikal Skuterud from the University of Waterloo noted that as Canada’s population has decreased, the GDP per capita has risen. This shift was partly influenced by the government’s revised immigration policies aligning with lower targets for immigration in early 2026.
The path to future economic growth might not be solely dependent on increasing immigration levels, according to both experts. They suggested a need for broader contributions to expand the economic pie collectively. Additionally, the decline in foreign student numbers has also impacted the economy, with many students holding low-wage jobs that do not significantly contribute to Canada’s GDP.
Furthermore, Alberta stands out as a province still experiencing population growth, unlike Ontario and British Columbia, which saw a more substantial decrease in temporary residents compared to permanent immigrants. Marion highlighted that Alberta’s growth was partly fueled by interprovincial migration, with more births than deaths recorded in the province, contrasting the national trend.
The departure of temporary workers and students contributed to the decline in British Columbia and Ontario, where the number of permanent immigrants moving in was lower than the count of temporary foreign workers and students leaving. This demographic shift has been reflected in economic indicators for these provinces.
The ongoing global uncertainty and challenges accessing the U.S. market have hindered Canada’s economic performance, with weak business investments impeding job creation. The experts emphasized the need for a collaborative effort to drive economic growth beyond just relying on immigration influx.