A recent study reveals that the boycott of U.S. travel by Canadians, primarily due to dissatisfaction with President Donald Trump, his trade policies, and provocative statements, has proven to be more impactful than initially estimated. While official Statistics Canada data indicates a roughly 25% decrease in Canadian residents returning from the U.S. last year, research conducted by the University of Toronto’s School of Cities using cellphone data suggests that the actual decline in cross-border trips was closer to 42%.
The analysis focused on data from Canadian mobile devices traveling to U.S. metropolitan areas from April 1, 2025, to March 31, 2026, capturing significant reductions in popular warm-weather destinations traditionally favored by Canadian tourists. For instance, trips to Myrtle Beach, S.C., experienced a 65% year-over-year decrease, marking the sharpest decline among metro areas. Similarly, cities like Panama City, Orlando, Cape Coral, Miami, and Naples in Florida witnessed drops of 50% or more in Canadian visitors.
The impact of the boycott extended beyond leisure destinations, affecting business hubs such as San Francisco, New York, Ann Arbor, Grand Rapids, Mich., and Boston, where visits declined by over 50%. Among 267 U.S. metro areas analyzed, only Cleveland, Portland, Ore., and Gainesville, Fla., reported an increase in Canadian visits last year.
Lead researcher Karen Chapple highlighted that the boycott affected cities of all sizes across the U.S., influencing not just leisure travel but also business and trade patterns. The data reflected a shift in Canadian businesses towards engaging more with overseas markets as the U.S. became less appealing.
Chapple’s detailed analysis, surpassing data typically reported by Canada Border Services Agency to Statistics Canada, revealed insights like a decrease in Canadians visiting multiple U.S. metros. The study also accounted for freight-related travel by truck drivers, often omitted from official travel statistics.
The U.S. Travel Association estimated that a 10% drop in Canadian tourism could cost the American economy $2.1 billion US, suggesting that the ongoing travel reduction by Canadians may have already led to significant economic losses exceeding $8.4 billion US. Prime Minister Mark Carney commended Canadians for supporting the trade dispute stance against the U.S., emphasizing the importance of domestic consumption and procurement.
The travel decline has posed challenges for Canadian businesses reliant on cross-border travelers, with reports of plummeting sales and potential closures. Las Vegas, a major tourist destination, experienced a substantial decrease in Canadian visitors, with Mexican tourists nearly matching the Canadian visitor count last year. Efforts to revive tourism, including promotions targeting Canadians, have been initiated amidst declining passenger numbers for airlines serving the region.
Las Vegas Mayor Shelley Berkley made a heartfelt appeal to Canadian tourists, urging them to return to the city and expressing gratitude for their past patronage.