Prior to the recent Ukrainian drone attack on the Tuapse oil refinery at the crack of dawn on Tuesday, cleanup crews were already on-site at the facility located on the Black Sea coast of Russia, addressing an oil spill from a previous assault that had resulted in an oily slick on the water and black precipitation. The refinery, owned by the Russian oil company Rosneft, has been targeted three times within the last fortnight. Following the most recent strike, Ukrainian special forces celebrated a “hat trick” on Telegram, while Russian President Vladimir Putin accused Kyiv of worsening the global energy supply crisis. In response, Putin instructed the country’s emergency minister to head to the scene and take control of the firefighting operations. A dark, noxious smoke cloud enveloped the area as a consequence of Ukraine’s intensified attacks on Russian energy facilities, including export terminals. Despite calls from allies urging Kyiv to ease off the assaults amid the energy crisis stemming from the conflict in Iran, Ukraine has persisted with its aggressive strategy.
“The Ukrainians seem to have gained a newfound confidence,” remarked Timothy Ash, an associate fellow specializing in the Russia and Eurasia program at Chatham House, a London-based think-tank. “It appears as though the Ukrainians have realized that they also possess economic leverage, which could potentially alter the game for them.”
Series of Drone Attacks
While much of the world’s attention has been fixated on the disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and the sharp surge in oil prices following the U.S. and Israel’s conflict with Iran, Ukraine has been actively undermining Russia’s ability to profit from its oil exports. According to an analysis by Reuters, nearly a dozen refineries have been targeted in recent weeks, along with additional ports and tankers. Russia has been reaping the benefits of soaring prices, partly due to Washington’s decision to temporarily relax sanctions on Moscow, enabling the sale of Russian oil and petroleum products already loaded on ships and at sea.
Ash, speaking at a virtual panel hosted by Chatham House on April 21, suggested that Ukraine’s current offensive is linked to Washington’s actions against Iran over the past months.
The effective shutdown of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has caused the ‘biggest energy security threat in history,’ says Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency. Ryan Cummings of the Stanford Institute for Economy Policymaking says the closure so far is the equivalent of a billion barrels of oil missing from